The Financial Stability Report for H1 2023 covers issues such as the macrofinancial situation in the global and Uzbek economy, the state of the financial and non-financial sectors, as well as the current conditions of the asset markets, particularly the real estate and car markets. In addition, the report includes the results of the banking system macro stress test and discusses opportunities for improving the macroprudential policy foundations.
First, the report presents a financial vulnerability heatmap for H1 2023, highlighting the increasing indebtedness of households, rising real estate prices, and significantly decreasing the liquidity indicators of banks. Further, the report analyzes global and domestic financial conditions.
The financial sector analysis covers banking and non-bank financial sectors and the capital market, while the non-financial sector covers households and corporations.
The asset market section provides an in-depth analysis of the real estate and car markets, explaining a divergence of market and fundamental house prices and the associated risks.
A macro stress test was conducted based on the baseline and adverse scenarios to assess the resilience of the Uzbek banking system to various shocks. Add-on shocks were also applied to the adverse scenario.
Finally, the report identifies and suggests measures to address Uzbekistan's main financial stability risks.
