The research provides an in-depth analysis of the balance of payments in the Republic of Uzbekistan, identifies the fundamental factors affecting its dynamics using advanced international models, and discusses approaches to assessing external economic risks and strengthening mechanisms to prevent them. It examines Uzbekistan’s external stability through the current account of the balance of payments from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, covering current account dynamics, the fundamental macroeconomic factors influencing them, as well as the current account norm and the external stability index used to assess external stability.
This analytical material is based on the findings of a joint research project carried out between the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan and Dongguk and Hongik universities of the Republic of Korea within the framework of the Bank of Korea’s Knowledge Partnership Program.
The study estimates Uzbekistan’s current account norm based on the International Monetary Fund’s External Balance Assessment methodology and compares it with the actual indicator. The findings show that a certain part of the current account deficit can be explained by fundamental factors, while the actual level remains above the benchmark.
The research also calculates an external stability index based on the current account norm. This approach is presented as an important analytical tool for assessing the economy’s exposure to external shocks, early identification of risks in the external sector, and shaping macroeconomic policy directions. In addition, the paper offers general conclusions and recommendations on strengthening external stability in the areas of fiscal, monetary, and exchange rate policy, as well as international trade.
The full text of the research paper is available via the link.
