In the first quarter of 2026, Uzbekistan’s economy continued to grow at a strong pace. High domestic demand, increased investment activity, and robust performance in the services, construction, and trade sectors were among the key drivers of growth. As a result, the economy expanded by 8.7 percent in Q1 2026. Against this background, the annual economic growth forecast has been revised upward to 7–7.5 percent.
Inflation continued to decline and stood at 7.1 percent in March 2026. Core inflation amounted to 5.7 percent. The decline in inflation was mainly driven by the fading effect of the high base observed last year. At the same time, the slower pace of disinflation in recent months indicates that inflationary pressures in the economy remain elevated.
Inflation expectations also declined in March; however, they still remain above forecast levels.
The escalation of geopolitical tensions has increased external economic uncertainty. Persistently high global energy and food prices, as well as rising logistics and transportation costs, may intensify imported inflationary pressures.
At the same time, elevated gold prices, stable export revenues, growth in remittance inflows, and the appreciation of partner countries’ currencies continue to support foreign currency supply in the domestic foreign exchange market.
Positive real interest rates are encouraging savings in the national currency and contributing to balanced growth in lending activity.
According to the updated forecasts, inflation is expected to be around 6.5 percent by the end of 2026.
The Central Bank will continue to closely monitor inflation dynamics, inflation expectations, aggregate demand conditions, exchange rate trends, and external risks.
In the first quarter of 2026, Uzbekistan’s economy continued to grow at a strong pace. High domestic demand, increased investment activity, and robust performance in the services, construction, and trade sectors were among the key drivers of growth. As a result, the economy expanded by 8.7 percent in Q1 2026. Against this background, the annual economic growth forecast has been revised upward to 7–7.5 percent.
Inflation continued to decline and stood at 7.1 percent in March 2026. Core inflation amounted to 5.7 percent. The decline in inflation was mainly driven by the fading effect of the high base observed last year. At the same time, the slower pace of disinflation in recent months indicates that inflationary pressures in the economy remain elevated.
Inflation expectations also declined in March; however, they still remain above forecast levels.
The escalation of geopolitical tensions has increased external economic uncertainty. Persistently high global energy and food prices, as well as rising logistics and transportation costs, may intensify imported inflationary pressures.
At the same time, elevated gold prices, stable export revenues, growth in remittance inflows, and the appreciation of partner countries’ currencies continue to support foreign currency supply in the domestic foreign exchange market.
Positive real interest rates are encouraging savings in the national currency and contributing to balanced growth in lending activity.
According to the updated forecasts, inflation is expected to be around 6.5 percent by the end of 2026.
The Central Bank will continue to closely monitor inflation dynamics, inflation expectations, aggregate demand conditions, exchange rate trends, and external risks.
The Central Bank’s monetary policy will remain focused on reducing inflation to the medium-term target of 5 percent, ensuring macroeconomic stability, and preserving the purchasing power of the population.
For more info
