In the fourth quarter of 2025, economic activity in Uzbekistan remained strong, with aggregate demand continuing to support economic growth. The steady expansion of consumption and investment demand, the continuation of fiscal stimulus measures, and relatively favorable conditions in global commodity markets accelerated economic growth. As a result, real GDP growth reached 7.7 percent in 2025, exceeding earlier projections.
Inflation continued its downward trend during the quarter, slowing to 7.3 percent year-on-year in December 2025, while core inflation declined to 5.7 percent. The deceleration of inflation was mainly driven by tight monetary conditions, the relative appreciation of the exchange rate, and changes in import prices. At the same time, relatively high services inflation and rising prices for certain food products continued to exert pressure on overall inflation dynamics.
During 2025, inflation expectations of households and businesses showed a declining trend. Households’ inflation expectations for the next 12 months fell from 14.4 percent at the beginning of the year to 11.5 percent by year-end. Meanwhile, inflation expectations among business entities declined from 12.9 percent to 11.1 percent.
External economic conditions remained relatively favorable in the fourth quarter. High prices for commodity products in global markets supported export revenues and budget revenues. In 2025, the Uzbek soum appreciated by 6.9 percent, mainly due to increased foreign currency supply in the domestic market, which helped ease import-driven inflation
To ensure a steady disinflation path, the Central Bank maintained the policy rate at 14 percent. Money market interest rates remained within the interest rate corridor, with the average UZONIA rate at around 13.9 percent during the quarter. These conditions supported positive real interest rates, encouraged savings in the national currency, and contributed to containing inflationary pressures.
According to the Central Bank’s projections, inflation is expected to reach around 6.5 percent by the end of 2026, while economic growth is projected at 6.5-7 percent. The Central Bank will continue to conduct monetary policy aimed at bringing inflation down to the 5 percent medium-term target
and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
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