On 19 August of this year, the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan hosted an open seminar entitled “Assessing and Managing Inflation Expectations: Survey Methodology, Empirical Evidence, and Implications for Central Banks,” bringing together a broad range of specialists interested in contemporary approaches to monetary policy.
The keynote presentation was delivered by Michael Weber, Professor of Finance at the Mitch Daniels School of Business at Purdue University (USA). His research spans macroeconomics, asset pricing, international finance, and household finance, with a particular focus on the study of inflation expectations.
The speaker presented findings from years of empirical research examining how households and businesses perceive inflation and the signals on which they base their forecasts—whether their own purchasing experiences, media reports, or official statistics. Particular attention was paid to survey methodology, including the proper formulation of questions to obtain reliable data and common errors to avoid when designing surveys. In addition, the practical aspects of central bank communication were addressed, including its role in managing and anchoring inflation expectations, the effectiveness of different communication formats, and the ways in which the same message may be perceived differently depending on the communication channel and source of information.
The seminar also highlighted that one of the distinctive features of the research conducted in Uzbekistan is the ability to compare inflation expectations across different groups of respondents. As Michael Weber noted: “What is truly unique about Uzbekistan is that the surveys consistently capture the expectations of households, businesses, and financial market participants, allowing them to be directly compared at the same point in time”.
Beyond providing an opportunity to learn from leading international practices, the event also served as a valuable stimulus for reassessing existing approaches to the analysis of inflation expectations—an area whose importance for effective monetary policy continues to grow. The Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan intends to further develop cooperation with leading international scholars and experts, thereby contributing to the strengthening of research capacity in this field.
