I. Inkhomiddinov, an economist in the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, conducted research on topic of "Measuring Natural Rate of Interest in Uzbekistan" as part of "Bilateral Assistance and Capacity Building Program for Central Banks" by Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs. The findings of this study have been published in a working paper at the official website of the program as well as at the Geneva Institute for Economic Research website.
In this analysis, three economic models were utilized to estimate the natural rate of interest for Uzbekistan: the Holston-Laubach-Williams (HLW) model, a modified version of the HLW model, and the Central Bank's Quarterly Projection Model (QPM). The HLW model and its modified version estimated natural rate of interest at 4.5% and 4.1%, respectively. Besides, the QPM model provided an estimate of 3.4%. Overall, the average natural rate of interest across all models was assessed to be around 4.0%.
Further details about this study can be found at the link.
