Economic activity in Uzbekistan remained strong in the second quarter of 2026. This was supported by robust domestic demand, rising consumer and investment activity, as well as growth in services, industry and construction. As a result, the economy expanded by 8.5 percent in the first half of 2026. On this basis, the economic growth forecast for 2026 has been raised to 7.5–8 percent.
Annual inflation stood at 6.4 percent in June 2026. Although this was 0.9 percentage points lower than at the beginning of the year, it was above the May figure of 5.5 percent. Changes in the prices of electricity, natural gas, coal and vehicle fuel were the main contributing factors. Core inflation remained broadly unchanged at around 5.7 percent, indicating that inflationary pressures in the economy have not fully subsided.
In June, inflation expectations of households and business entities stopped declining. Household inflation expectations stood at 10.1 percent, while business expectations were 9.9 percent. Both remained almost 4 percentage points above headline inflation.
Uncertainties in the external economic environment persist. Increases in global energy, fertiliser and food prices, as well as risks related to fuel supply and logistics, may intensify imported inflationary pressures.
At the same time, strong growth in non-gold exports, international remittances, foreign investment and net foreign-currency sales by households continue to support foreign-currency supply in the domestic foreign exchange market. The real effective exchange rate declined by 0.9 percent in the second quarter, supporting external demand.
Monetary conditions remain tight. The Central Bank’s policy rate has been maintained at 14 percent. Positive real interest rates continue to encourage savings in the national currency and contribute to balanced credit growth. In particular, local-currency deposits increased by 46.1 percent year on year, while growth in outstanding loans slowed to 12.9 percent.
According to the updated forecasts, inflation is expected to stand at around 6.5 percent by the end of 2026. Inflation is projected to return to the 5 percent target in 2027.
The Central Bank will continue to closely monitor inflation and inflation expectations, aggregate demand, liquidity conditions, exchange rate developments and external risks.
The Central Bank’s monetary policy will remain focused on reducing inflation to the 5 percent medium-term target, ensuring macroeconomic stability and preserving households’ purchasing power.
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